July 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

Always trying to improve the real estate statistics I present to you, I’ve decided to mine for a new stat – median sale price for the last 90 days. I will present this statistic along with the median sale price for the last month. See the table below for the actual numbers.

What are the benefits of looking at the median sale price for the last 90 days? First, it helps minimize some of the incredible variance that occurs in a small market like South Lake Tahoe. A few high priced sales can throw off the median sale price for a single month here in South Lake. This isn’t so true when looking at sales over a 90-day span. Second, the 90-day statistic centers on a date 45 days in the past. The commonly accepted monthly median sale price centers on a date 15 days in the past. Thus, we get three times more homes, which minimizes variance, and only lose a month when it comes to keeping our stats current. If you are yet to be convinced, look at the table below. For any given month, the median price for the last 90 days, more often than not, produces a better reflection of market conditions than the median price for the month.

For those of you who’ve been following my statistical reports, you’ll notice that I’m no longer calculating median sale price over the last year (a.k.a. 12-month moving median). The statistic just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s good for looking at real estate history; and this is only true if the reader knows the data centers on a date 6 months in the past. Presenting it as current information on a month-to-month basis, however, just doesn’t make any sense.

As for now, we’re still seeing a lot of homes in escrow. We’ve had 60-70 homes in escrow at any given time in the last 2-3 months (the numbers I took from STAoR for the months previous to this one are low somehow.) And we’re finally seeing an increase in homes sold, but it still should be higher. Look at the numbers in 2005 when the market was at its peak. About 65% of escrows closed at that time. Right now we’re seeing about half close. I know a knowledgeable real estate professional who suggested that perhaps we have a bunch of really long escrows sitting out there. This would keep many of our escrows from closing. This isn’t the case, however. When I looked through South Lake Tahoe’s escrows a week ago, only 14 out of the 70 had been in escrow for more than 60 days. I think it’s just that a larger percentage of homes are falling out of escrow than we’ve seen in the past. With a tight lending industry, most buyers probably aren’t qualifying for loans. So if you’re a seller here in South Lake Tahoe, don’t be too upset about your home falling out of escrow. It’s happening to everybody.

I’ll do my best to bring you more statistics in the next week. I was only able to go back to the beginning of 2007 with the 90-day median sale price. I’d also like to give you some foreclosure, condo, and lot numbers. It’s just a very, very busy time for real estate here in South Lake Tahoe.

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 90 Days Median Sale $
July 2008
494
64
37
$395,000
$388,000
June 2008
465
57
30
$392,000
$365,000
May 2008
414
47
31
$396,000
$415,000
Apr 2008
372
44
21
$387,000
$379,000
Mar 2008
361
40
34
$402,500
$387,500
Feb 2008
374
52
16
$445,750
$412,500
Jan 2008
366
33
16
$466,500
$428,000
Dec 2007
382
28
34
$460,000
$502,000
Nov 2007
403
42
27
$415,000
$460,000
Oct 2007
353
15
39
$415,000
$425,000
Sept 2007
442
30
30
$415,000
$398,250
Aug 2007
538
45
38
$437,500
$421,500
July 2007
557
40
25
$440,000
$435,000
June 2007
552
33
35
$435,000
$440,000
May 2007
522
47
32
$465,500
$460,000
Apr 2007
423
32
28
$474,000
$392,500
Mar 2007
359
37
30
$482,500
$507,000
Feb 2007
327
25
25
$485,000
$492,500
Jan 2007
331
37
21
$475,750
$395,750
Dec 2006
339
29
40
 
$497,500
Nov 2006
362
50
44
 
$483,500
Oct 2006
411
55
53
 
$450,000
Sept 2006
463
63
31
 
$442,000
Aug 2006
548
46
36
 
$427,500
July 2006
571
49
37
 
$475,000
June 2006
532
51
37
 
$480,000
May 2006
424
50
35
 
$465,000
Apr 2006
302
50
32
 
$504,000
Mar 2006
264
39
38
 
$485,140
Feb 2006
262
51
21
 
$489,000
Jan 2006
256
32
20
 
$508,750
Dec 2005
198
n/a
31
 
$450,000
Nov 2005
282
42
53
 
$455,000
Oct 2005
300
69
55
 
$485,000
Sept 2005
313
93
63
 
$495,000
Aug 2005
270
96
79
 
$510,000
July 2005
209
110
74
 
$484,500
June 2005
188
113
65
 
$456,000
May 2005
172
96
57
 
$495,000
Apr 2005
116
91
72
 
$488,500
Mar 2005
88
83
50
 
$440,000
Feb 2005
72
86
34
 
$449,500
Jan 2005
85
63
47
 
$405,000

Price Range
Active Listings
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) Months Supply of Inventory
$0 – $300,000
33
4.92 (14.91%)
6.7
$300,001-$500,000
195
13.75 (7.05%)
14.2
$500,001 – $750,000
131
6.08 (4.64%)
21.5
$750,001 – $1,000,000
63
2.50 (3.97%)
25.2
$1,000,001 – $2,000,000
56
1.83 (3.27%)
30.6
$2,000,001 and up
16
0.08 (0.52%)
192
Posted on August 5, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Drew Kondo | Category: Statistics | Tagged , , , ,

One response to “July 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate”

  1. admin says:

    Because of the late addition of a July sale, I had to adjust the statistics accordingly today.

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