There’s been a bit of a buzz in the South Lake Tahoe real estate community. Have we hit the bottom of the market? Possibly. Check out the median sale prices over the last seven months. It looks like we hit bottom in June and have been heading up in the following months. Additionally, the median list price of homes in escrow right now is $437,000. I’d expect that number to drop to about $412,000 because our sale-price-to-list-price ratio on the year is 94.23%. These numbers fall in line with the theory that we have hit the bottom of the market.
What do I think? I’m skeptical. I wish I remembered enough from my college stats class to back this up, but I don’t think enough homes have sold over a long enough period of time to claim that the market’s downward trend has come to a halt. I’ll be happy when we sell off some more of this oversupply of homes.
Speaking of, South Lake Tahoe’s supply of homes did dwindle some at the turn of the month when seventy listings expired. Only thirteen of those listings are back on the market. With less competition amongst listings, now isn’t a bad time to list.
Other notable activity in September occurred in the foreclosure market. Of the 28 single-family residences that sold in September, 7 of them were foreclosures (25%). At the turn of the month, there were 12 foreclosures in escrow and 15 short sales in escrow. We’re seeing a lot of distressed sales. It’s no wonder that banks are folding on a daily basis.
Only 3 condos sold in the last month. However, some buyers were thinking about the upcoming ski season. An unusually high 6 condos went into escrow.
Four lots went into escrow last month and only two sold. It’s been very slow in the dirt market.
I’d love to hear your comments on any of this. I will update a few numbers as some agents haven’t been able to input their September sales in the MLS yet.
| Month & Year | Listings at Month’s End | Escrows at Month’s End | Homes Sold | Median $ Over Last 90 Days | Median Sale $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2008 |
443
|
78
|
28
|
$417,500
|
$435,000
|
|
Aug 2008 |
499
|
61
|
34
|
$399,000
|
$443,750
|
| July 2008 |
494
|
64
|
36
|
$396,000
|
$391,500
|
| June 2008 |
465
|
57
|
30
|
$392,000
|
$365,000
|
| May 2008 |
414
|
47
|
31
|
$396,000
|
$415,000
|
| Apr 2008 |
372
|
44
|
21
|
$387,000
|
$379,000
|
| Mar 2008 |
361
|
40
|
34
|
$402,500
|
$387,500
|
| Feb 2008 |
374
|
52
|
16
|
$445,750
|
$412,500
|
| Jan 2008 |
366
|
33
|
16
|
$466,500
|
$428,000
|
| Dec 2007 |
382
|
28
|
34
|
$460,000
|
$502,000
|
| Nov 2007 |
403
|
42
|
27
|
$415,000
|
$460,000
|
| Oct 2007 |
353
|
15
|
39
|
$415,000
|
$425,000
|
| Sept 2007 |
442
|
30
|
30
|
$415,000
|
$398,250
|
| Aug 2007 |
538
|
45
|
38
|
$437,500
|
$421,500
|
| July 2007 |
557
|
40
|
25
|
$440,000
|
$435,000
|
| June 2007 |
552
|
33
|
35
|
$435,000
|
$440,000
|
| May 2007 |
522
|
47
|
32
|
$465,500
|
$460,000
|
| Apr 2007 |
423
|
32
|
28
|
$474,000
|
$392,500
|
| Mar 2007 |
359
|
37
|
30
|
$482,500
|
$507,000
|
| Feb 2007 |
327
|
25
|
25
|
$485,000
|
$492,500
|
| Jan 2007 |
331
|
37
|
21
|
$475,750
|
$395,750
|
| Dec 2006 |
339
|
29
|
40
|
$477,000
|
$497,500
|
| Nov 2006 |
362
|
50
|
44
|
$464,000
|
$483,500
|
| Oct 2006 |
411
|
55
|
53
|
$444,000
|
$450,000
|
| Sept 2006 |
463
|
63
|
31
|
$449,500
|
$442,000
|
| Aug 2006 |
548
|
46
|
36
|
$465,000
|
$427,500
|
| July 2006 |
571
|
49
|
37
|
$480,000
|
$475,000
|
| June 2006 |
532
|
51
|
37
|
$482,290
|
$480,000
|
| May 2006 |
424
|
50
|
35
|
$482,580
|
$465,000
|
| Apr 2006 |
302
|
50
|
32
|
$489,000
|
$504,000
|
| Mar 2006 |
264
|
39
|
38
|
$495,000
|
$485,140
|
| Feb 2006 |
262
|
51
|
21
|
$477,000
|
$489,000
|
| Jan 2006 |
256
|
32
|
20
|
$464,500
|
$508,750
|
| Dec 2005 |
198
|
n/a
|
31
|
$460,000
|
$450,000
|
| Nov 2005 |
282
|
42
|
53
|
$485,000
|
$455,000
|
| Oct 2005 |
300
|
69
|
55
|
$500,000
|
$485,000
|
| Sept 2005 |
313
|
93
|
63
|
$495,000
|
$495,000
|
| Aug 2005 |
270
|
96
|
79
|
$485,750
|
$510,000
|
| July 2005 |
209
|
110
|
74
|
$482,000
|
$484,500
|
| June 2005 |
188
|
113
|
65
|
$480,000
|
$456,000
|
| May 2005 |
172
|
96
|
57
|
$489,000
|
$495,000
|
| Apr 2005 |
116
|
91
|
72
|
$475,000
|
$488,500
|
| Mar 2005 |
88
|
83
|
50
|
$440,000
|
$440,000
|
| Feb 2005 |
72
|
86
|
34
|
$433,000
|
$449,500
|
| Jan 2005 |
85
|
63
|
47
|
$405,000
|
$405,000
|
|
Price Range
|
Active Listings
|
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) | Months Supply of Inventory (Sept.) | Months Supply of Inventory (Aug.) | Months Supply of Inventory (July) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0-$300,000 |
37
|
4.00 (10.81%)
|
9.3 |
8.8
|
5.2
|
| $300,001-$500,000 |
168
|
18.00 (2.68%)
|
9.3
|
13.8
|
12.4
|
| $500,001-$750,000 |
112
|
5.67 (1.26%)
|
19.8
|
19.7
|
21.8
|
| $750,001-$1,000,000 |
61
|
2.67 (1.09%)
|
22.9
|
34.0
|
31.5
|
| $1,000,001-$2,000,000 |
50
|
1.00 (0.50%)
|
50.0
|
22.5
|
28.0
|
| $2,000,001 and up |
15
|
0.00 (0.00%)
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
* For the sake of statistical integrity, my absorption rates are no longer considering sales for the last year. They are now calculated using sales for the last 90 days. For more information on why I decided on the change, e-mail me at drew@southtahoehouses.com.
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