June 2009 South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Update

It’s almost summer here in South Lake Tahoe, and while the temps aren’t too hot with this recent cold front, the real estate market is scorching. We haven’t seen buyer activity like this in years. I’ve seen several properties receive multiple, competing offers. They are oftentimes selling for more than list price. Things are getting crazy here and many of us real estate professionals are putting in long hours in order to keep up.

At the moment, there are 94 homes in escrow in South Lake Tahoe (We hit 100 last Friday.) We haven’t seen this many homes in escrow since July 2005, which was a month before the peak of the market. See the tables below for more statistics.

Our overall inventory is shrinking as well. Currently, there are 381 single-family residences for sale. Last year there were 414. The year before, 522. In May 2006, there were 424. With Tahoe homes reaching affordable prices and buyer confidence increasing, look for these trends to continue.

Speaking of prices, home prices have leveled off since the start of the year. I’ve checked the homes currently in escrow, and median sale price will continue to hold steady for at least the next couple months. Perhaps we are at the bottom of the market?? Statistics are increasingly pointing in that direction. A balanced market is traditionally defined by 5 to 7 months of inventory on the market. At 6.1 months of inventory, we have already reached that point in the under-$300,000 price band. We are quickly approaching that point in the $300,000-$400,000 price band. As inventory continues to decrease and sales increase, the statistics should catch up and begin to truly reflect how busy our market is.

A couple caveats …

Ninety-four homes in escrow today can’t be compared to 94 homes in escrow a few years ago. The reason for this is short sales. Short sales typically take longer to close than a normal escrow. Thus, with some homes sitting in escrow for long periods of time, this inflates the total. That said, however, only 15 short sale homes went into escrow over 45 days ago. Subtract these from our total and the 79 remaining homes in escrow still hasn’t been matched since September 2005, which was virtually the peak of the market.

In addition to this, the traditional definition of a balanced market, 5 to 7 months of inventory, may not apply in this market. Previous markets have not been affected by foreclosures like this. A new wave of foreclosures could drive prices down further. On the other hand, prices have leveled off for the last half year. And no one can argue that our shrinking inventory is a good sign of rebound.

All that said, now might be THE time to buy in South Lake Tahoe. And with another amazing Tahoe summer approaching, what better a time to come and start shopping!

Month & Year	Listings at Month’s End	Escrows at Month’s End	Homes Sold	Median $ Over Last 90 Days	Median Sale $
May 2009	381	94	26	$315,000	$315,000
Apr 2009	383	60	28	$319,000	$295,000
Mar 2009	372	46	26	$320,000	$335,250
Feb 2009	381	39	28	$360,000	$329,500
Jan 2009	367	36	17	$370,000	$302,000
Dec 2008	354	32	26	$401,000	$412,450
Nov 2008	369	35	31	$425,000	$370,000
Oct 2008	395	35	46	$440,000	$470,000
Sept 2008	435	69	29	$420,000	$440,000
Aug 2008	468	45	34	$399,000	$443,750
July 2008	482	53	36	$396,000	$391,500
June 2008	465	57	30	$392,000	$365,000
May 2008	414	47	31	$396,000	$415,000
Apr 2008	372	44	21	$387,000	$379,000
Mar 2008	361	40	34	$402,500	$387,500
Feb 2008	374	52	16	$445,750	$412,500
Jan 2008	366	33	16	$466,500	$428,000
Dec 2007	382	28	34	$460,000	$502,000
Nov 2007	403	42	27	$415,000	$460,000
Oct 2007	353	15	39	$415,000	$425,000
Sept 2007	442	30	30	$415,000	$398,250
Aug 2007	538	45	38	$437,500	$421,500
July 2007	557	40	25	$440,000	$435,000
June 2007	552	33	35	$435,000	$440,000
May 2007	522	47	32	$465,500	$460,000
Apr 2007	423	32	28	$474,000	$392,500
Mar 2007	359	37	30	$482,500	$507,000
Feb 2007	327	25	25	$485,000	$492,500
Jan 2007	331	37	21	$475,750	$395,750
Dec 2006	339	29	40	$477,000	$497,500
Nov 2006	362	50	44	$464,000	$483,500
Oct 2006	411	55	53	$444,000	$450,000
Sept 2006	463	63	31	$449,500	$442,000
Aug 2006	548	46	36	$465,000	$427,500
July 2006	571	49	37	$480,000	$475,000
June 2006	532	51	37	$482,290	$480,000
May 2006	424	50	35	$482,580	$465,000
Apr 2006	302	50	32	$489,000	$504,000
Mar 2006	264	39	38	$495,000	$485,140
Feb 2006	262	51	21	$477,000	$489,000
Jan 2006	256	32	20	$464,500	$508,750
Dec 2005	198	n/a	31	$460,000	$450,000
Nov 2005	282	42	53	$485,000	$455,000
Oct 2005	300	69	55	$500,000	$485,000
Sept 2005	313	93	63	$495,000	$495,000
Aug 2005	270	96	79	$485,750	$510,000
July 2005	209	110	74	$482,000	$484,500
June 2005	188	113	65	$480,000	$456,000
May 2005	172	96	57	$489,000	$495,000
Apr 2005	116	91	72	$475,000	$488,500
Mar 2005	88	83	50	$440,000	$440,000
Feb 2005	72	86	34	$433,000	$449,500
Jan 2005	85	63	47	$405,000	$405,000

Price Range	Active Listings	Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory)	Months Supply of Inventory (Sept.)
$0-$300,000	50	8.17 (16.33%)	6.1
$300,001-$400,000	67	8.08 (12.06%)	8.3
$400,001-$500,000	67	5.08 (7.59%)	13.2
$500,001-$650,000	57	4.00 (7.02%)	14.3
$650,001-$800,000	49	2.00 (4.08%)	24.5
$800,001-$1,000,000	35	1.33 (3.81%)	26.3
$1,000,001-$2,000,000	40	1.17 (2.92%)	34.3
$2,000,001 and up	16	0.08 (0.52%)	192.0