June 2009 South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Update

It’s almost summer here in South Lake Tahoe, and while the temps aren’t too hot with this recent cold front, the real estate market is scorching. We haven’t seen buyer activity like this in years. I’ve seen several properties receive multiple, competing offers. They are oftentimes selling for more than list price. Things are getting crazy here and many of us real estate professionals are putting in long hours in order to keep up.

At the moment, there are 94 homes in escrow in South Lake Tahoe (We hit 100 last Friday.) We haven’t seen this many homes in escrow since July 2005, which was a month before the peak of the market. See the tables below for more statistics.

Our overall inventory is shrinking as well. Currently, there are 381 single-family residences for sale. Last year there were 414. The year before, 522. In May 2006, there were 424. With Tahoe homes reaching affordable prices and buyer confidence increasing, look for these trends to continue.

Speaking of prices, home prices have leveled off since the start of the year. I’ve checked the homes currently in escrow, and median sale price will continue to hold steady for at least the next couple months. Perhaps we are at the bottom of the market?? Statistics are increasingly pointing in that direction. A balanced market is traditionally defined by 5 to 7 months of inventory on the market. At 6.1 months of inventory, we have already reached that point in the under-$300,000 price band. We are quickly approaching that point in the $300,000-$400,000 price band. As inventory continues to decrease and sales increase, the statistics should catch up and begin to truly reflect how busy our market is.

A couple caveats …

Ninety-four homes in escrow today can’t be compared to 94 homes in escrow a few years ago. The reason for this is short sales. Short sales typically take longer to close than a normal escrow. Thus, with some homes sitting in escrow for long periods of time, this inflates the total. That said, however, only 15 short sale homes went into escrow over 45 days ago. Subtract these from our total and the 79 remaining homes in escrow still hasn’t been matched since September 2005, which was virtually the peak of the market.

In addition to this, the traditional definition of a balanced market, 5 to 7 months of inventory, may not apply in this market. Previous markets have not been affected by foreclosures like this. A new wave of foreclosures could drive prices down further. On the other hand, prices have leveled off for the last half year. And no one can argue that our shrinking inventory is a good sign of rebound.

All that said, now might be THE time to buy in South Lake Tahoe. And with another amazing Tahoe summer approaching, what better a time to come and start shopping!

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 90 Days Median Sale $

May 2009

381
94
26
$315,000
$315,000

Apr 2009

383
60
28
$319,000
$295,000

Mar 2009

372
46
26
$320,000
$335,250

Feb 2009

381
39
28
$360,000
$329,500

Jan 2009

367
36
17
$370,000
$302,000
Dec 2008
354
32
26
$401,000
$412,450
Nov 2008
369
35
31
$425,000
$370,000
Oct 2008
395
35
46
$440,000
$470,000
Sept 2008
435
69
29
$420,000
$440,000

Aug 2008

468
45
34
$399,000
$443,750
July 2008
482
53
36
$396,000
$391,500
June 2008
465
57
30
$392,000
$365,000
May 2008
414
47
31
$396,000
$415,000
Apr 2008
372
44
21
$387,000
$379,000
Mar 2008
361
40
34
$402,500
$387,500
Feb 2008
374
52
16
$445,750
$412,500
Jan 2008
366
33
16
$466,500
$428,000
Dec 2007
382
28
34
$460,000
$502,000
Nov 2007
403
42
27
$415,000
$460,000
Oct 2007
353
15
39
$415,000
$425,000
Sept 2007
442
30
30
$415,000
$398,250
Aug 2007
538
45
38
$437,500
$421,500
July 2007
557
40
25
$440,000
$435,000
June 2007
552
33
35
$435,000
$440,000
May 2007
522
47
32
$465,500
$460,000
Apr 2007
423
32
28
$474,000
$392,500
Mar 2007
359
37
30
$482,500
$507,000
Feb 2007
327
25
25
$485,000
$492,500
Jan 2007
331
37
21
$475,750
$395,750
Dec 2006
339
29
40
$477,000
$497,500
Nov 2006
362
50
44
$464,000
$483,500
Oct 2006
411
55
53
$444,000
$450,000
Sept 2006
463
63
31
$449,500
$442,000
Aug 2006
548
46
36
$465,000
$427,500
July 2006
571
49
37
$480,000
$475,000
June 2006
532
51
37
$482,290
$480,000
May 2006
424
50
35
$482,580
$465,000
Apr 2006
302
50
32
$489,000
$504,000
Mar 2006
264
39
38
$495,000
$485,140
Feb 2006
262
51
21
$477,000
$489,000
Jan 2006
256
32
20
$464,500
$508,750
Dec 2005
198
n/a
31
$460,000
$450,000
Nov 2005
282
42
53
$485,000
$455,000
Oct 2005
300
69
55
$500,000
$485,000
Sept 2005
313
93
63
$495,000
$495,000
Aug 2005
270
96
79
$485,750
$510,000
July 2005
209
110
74
$482,000
$484,500
June 2005
188
113
65
$480,000
$456,000
May 2005
172
96
57
$489,000
$495,000
Apr 2005
116
91
72
$475,000
$488,500
Mar 2005
88
83
50
$440,000
$440,000
Feb 2005
72
86
34
$433,000
$449,500
Jan 2005
85
63
47
$405,000
$405,000

Price Range
Active Listings
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) Months Supply of Inventory (Sept.)
$0-$300,000
50
8.17 (16.33%)

6.1

$300,001-$400,000
67
8.08 (12.06%)
8.3
$400,001-$500,000
67
5.08 (7.59%)
13.2
$500,001-$650,000
57
4.00 (7.02%)
14.3
$650,001-$800,000
49
2.00 (4.08%)
24.5
$800,001-$1,000,000
35
1.33 (3.81%)
26.3
$1,000,001-$2,000,000
40
1.17 (2.92%)
34.3
$2,000,001 and up
16
0.08 (0.52%)
192.0
Posted on June 4, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Drew Kondo | Category: Market Trends, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

One response to “June 2009 South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Update”

  1. Melissa says:

    There are lot of great deals to be found out there. Thanks for the information.

    http://www.neighborcity.com

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