South Lake Tahoe Sales Up 45% From Last Year

The Tahoe real estate market does not follow the national market.

While discussing the state of the Tahoe real estate market last month, I was presented the argument that the number of home sales are down over the last several years. Surprisingly, this is a statistic I did not track, so I went to work in the MLS and started mining data. When finished, even I was shocked at the results.

Time Period Home Sales
1/1/2010 – 6/30/2010
239
1/1/2009 – 6/30/2009
165
1/1/2008 – 6/30/2008
148
1/1/2007 – 6/30/2007
171
1/1/2006 – 6/30/2006
183
1/1/2005 – 6/30/2005
325
1/1/2004 – 6/30/2004
347
1/1/2003 – 6/30/2003
244

When I compiled these figures we were only through half of 2010, so I totaled the number of home sales for the first half of each year as far back as the MLS had record. I was amazed to find that sales are up 45% over last year, and homes are selling at the same pace they were in 2003! These numbers also suggest the correction in the real estate market may be in the rearview. The middle point between the peak – 347 – and the trough – 148 – is 248, which nearly matches this year’s total of 239. Furthermore, over these eight periods, the average number of sales is 228, which also nearly matches this year’s total of 239. Home sales bounced up, fell down, and are now at the midpoint. This midpoint is accurate as 2010 Tahoe home sales were unaffected by homebuyer tax credits because our resort market hardly sells primary residences, which were the only sales providing tax credits. The Tahoe real estate market does not follow the national market.

In addition to my recent findings, median home sale price has remained level in South Lake Tahoe since January 2009* (see graph below). Year-over-year inventory continues to decrease. Based on supply vs. demand (previous sales versus our current supply of homes), our market still favors buyers but only slightly. Our market will reach a technical, numbers-based balance within months. It may have already attained an actual balance.

South Lake Tahoe Median Sale Price Graph

Our market does not follow the national market. Our buyers represent a unique subset of buyers who seek to purchase vacation homes. They have more financial power than almost any other group of buyers in the nation. They were not affected by the downturn in the economy like the average U.S. citizen. They could have purchased at any point during the real estate downturn, but they sat on the fence waiting for the bottom. Now that it appears to be here, they are purchasing Tahoe homes in droves – at the same pace of 2003. What’s the old saying? Those who purchase when no one else will are those who will become rich.

 

Drew Kondo received his Bachelor’s of Mathematics from UT-Austin in 2001 and now sells real estate on the Tahoe south and east shores. To contact him, call 530.545.1831 or email drew@southtahoehouses.com.

* When comparing my median sale price statistics to those of other sources, it must be understood that I present median sale price for individual months and only incorporate sales from that month. This provides the most accurate representation of what occurred in that month. Other organizations offering real estate data often squeeze sales from the previous twelve months into a single month. This flattens data and makes it easier to interpret, but it also fails to represent what actually occurred in any given month.

 


Posted on August 12, 2010 at 1:57 pm
Drew Kondo | Posted in Market Trends, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , ,

South Lake Tahoe Market Update

As the holder of a bachelor’s in mathematics, I mine for a lot of real estate statistics. The following numbers present a good reflection of what’s happening in the South Lake Tahoe real estate market. Since January 2009, median sale price has leveled. The bottom of the market is near.

The market as a whole has 9.1 months supply of inventory. A balanced market is traditionally defined by 5 to 7 months supply of inventory. Because we have a greater suppy than this, we are still in a buyer’s market. However, we are approaching balance. If the market is divided into price bands, some segments have reached balance and have even entered into a seller’s market. In the $0-$200,000 price band, only 2.0 month’s supply of inventory remain. In the $200,000-$300,000 price band, 4.5 month’s supply of inventory exists. These numbers suggest there is a seller’s market in these price bands, which is the case. Lower priced properties are seeing multiple offers and are often selling for more than their list price. If you are seeking a property in this price band, now is probably the time to buyer. The market bottom for these properties may already be in our rearview. A surplus of inventory in the higher price bands suggest that nicer homes will continue to lose value.

Median Home Sale Price – November

$320,000

Median Home Sale Price – Last 90 Days

$306,125

Number of Active Home Listings for Sale

314

Number of Home Listings in Escrow (% of Inventory)

90 (22.3%)

Average Sale Price to List Price Ratio

94.7%

Months Supply of Inventory

9.1


Posted on December 15, 2009 at 4:59 pm
Drew Kondo | Posted in Market Trends, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

June 2009 South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Update

It’s almost summer here in South Lake Tahoe, and while the temps aren’t too hot with this recent cold front, the real estate market is scorching. We haven’t seen buyer activity like this in years. I’ve seen several properties receive multiple, competing offers. They are oftentimes selling for more than list price. Things are getting crazy here and many of us real estate professionals are putting in long hours in order to keep up.

At the moment, there are 94 homes in escrow in South Lake Tahoe (We hit 100 last Friday.) We haven’t seen this many homes in escrow since July 2005, which was a month before the peak of the market. See the tables below for more statistics.

Our overall inventory is shrinking as well. Currently, there are 381 single-family residences for sale. Last year there were 414. The year before, 522. In May 2006, there were 424. With Tahoe homes reaching affordable prices and buyer confidence increasing, look for these trends to continue.

Speaking of prices, home prices have leveled off since the start of the year. I’ve checked the homes currently in escrow, and median sale price will continue to hold steady for at least the next couple months. Perhaps we are at the bottom of the market?? Statistics are increasingly pointing in that direction. A balanced market is traditionally defined by 5 to 7 months of inventory on the market. At 6.1 months of inventory, we have already reached that point in the under-$300,000 price band. We are quickly approaching that point in the $300,000-$400,000 price band. As inventory continues to decrease and sales increase, the statistics should catch up and begin to truly reflect how busy our market is.

A couple caveats …

Ninety-four homes in escrow today can’t be compared to 94 homes in escrow a few years ago. The reason for this is short sales. Short sales typically take longer to close than a normal escrow. Thus, with some homes sitting in escrow for long periods of time, this inflates the total. That said, however, only 15 short sale homes went into escrow over 45 days ago. Subtract these from our total and the 79 remaining homes in escrow still hasn’t been matched since September 2005, which was virtually the peak of the market.

In addition to this, the traditional definition of a balanced market, 5 to 7 months of inventory, may not apply in this market. Previous markets have not been affected by foreclosures like this. A new wave of foreclosures could drive prices down further. On the other hand, prices have leveled off for the last half year. And no one can argue that our shrinking inventory is a good sign of rebound.

All that said, now might be THE time to buy in South Lake Tahoe. And with another amazing Tahoe summer approaching, what better a time to come and start shopping!

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 90 Days Median Sale $

May 2009

381
94
26
$315,000
$315,000

Apr 2009

383
60
28
$319,000
$295,000

Mar 2009

372
46
26
$320,000
$335,250

Feb 2009

381
39
28
$360,000
$329,500

Jan 2009

367
36
17
$370,000
$302,000
Dec 2008
354
32
26
$401,000
$412,450
Nov 2008
369
35
31
$425,000
$370,000
Oct 2008
395
35
46
$440,000
$470,000
Sept 2008
435
69
29
$420,000
$440,000

Aug 2008

468
45
34
$399,000
$443,750
July 2008
482
53
36
$396,000
$391,500
June 2008
465
57
30
$392,000
$365,000
May 2008
414
47
31
$396,000
$415,000
Apr 2008
372
44
21
$387,000
$379,000
Mar 2008
361
40
34
$402,500
$387,500
Feb 2008
374
52
16
$445,750
$412,500
Jan 2008
366
33
16
$466,500
$428,000
Dec 2007
382
28
34
$460,000
$502,000
Nov 2007
403
42
27
$415,000
$460,000
Oct 2007
353
15
39
$415,000
$425,000
Sept 2007
442
30
30
$415,000
$398,250
Aug 2007
538
45
38
$437,500
$421,500
July 2007
557
40
25
$440,000
$435,000
June 2007
552
33
35
$435,000
$440,000
May 2007
522
47
32
$465,500
$460,000
Apr 2007
423
32
28
$474,000
$392,500
Mar 2007
359
37
30
$482,500
$507,000
Feb 2007
327
25
25
$485,000
$492,500
Jan 2007
331
37
21
$475,750
$395,750
Dec 2006
339
29
40
$477,000
$497,500
Nov 2006
362
50
44
$464,000
$483,500
Oct 2006
411
55
53
$444,000
$450,000
Sept 2006
463
63
31
$449,500
$442,000
Aug 2006
548
46
36
$465,000
$427,500
July 2006
571
49
37
$480,000
$475,000
June 2006
532
51
37
$482,290
$480,000
May 2006
424
50
35
$482,580
$465,000
Apr 2006
302
50
32
$489,000
$504,000
Mar 2006
264
39
38
$495,000
$485,140
Feb 2006
262
51
21
$477,000
$489,000
Jan 2006
256
32
20
$464,500
$508,750
Dec 2005
198
n/a
31
$460,000
$450,000
Nov 2005
282
42
53
$485,000
$455,000
Oct 2005
300
69
55
$500,000
$485,000
Sept 2005
313
93
63
$495,000
$495,000
Aug 2005
270
96
79
$485,750
$510,000
July 2005
209
110
74
$482,000
$484,500
June 2005
188
113
65
$480,000
$456,000
May 2005
172
96
57
$489,000
$495,000
Apr 2005
116
91
72
$475,000
$488,500
Mar 2005
88
83
50
$440,000
$440,000
Feb 2005
72
86
34
$433,000
$449,500
Jan 2005
85
63
47
$405,000
$405,000

Price Range
Active Listings
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) Months Supply of Inventory (Sept.)
$0-$300,000
50
8.17 (16.33%)

6.1

$300,001-$400,000
67
8.08 (12.06%)
8.3
$400,001-$500,000
67
5.08 (7.59%)
13.2
$500,001-$650,000
57
4.00 (7.02%)
14.3
$650,001-$800,000
49
2.00 (4.08%)
24.5
$800,001-$1,000,000
35
1.33 (3.81%)
26.3
$1,000,001-$2,000,000
40
1.17 (2.92%)
34.3
$2,000,001 and up
16
0.08 (0.52%)
192.0

Posted on June 4, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Drew Kondo | Posted in Market Trends, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

September 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

There’s been a bit of a buzz in the South Lake Tahoe real estate community. Have we hit the bottom of the market? Possibly. Check out the median sale prices over the last seven months. It looks like we hit bottom in June and have been heading up in the following months. Additionally, the median list price of homes in escrow right now is $437,000. I’d expect that number to drop to about $412,000 because our sale-price-to-list-price ratio on the year is 94.23%. These numbers fall in line with the theory that we have hit the bottom of the market.

What do I think? I’m skeptical. I wish I remembered enough from my college stats class to back this up, but I don’t think enough homes have sold over a long enough period of time to claim that the market’s downward trend has come to a halt. I’ll be happy when we sell off some more of this oversupply of homes.

Speaking of, South Lake Tahoe’s supply of homes did dwindle some at the turn of the month when seventy listings expired. Only thirteen of those listings are back on the market. With less competition amongst listings, now isn’t a bad time to list.

Other notable activity in September occurred in the foreclosure market. Of the 28 single-family residences that sold in September, 7 of them were foreclosures (25%). At the turn of the month, there were 12 foreclosures in escrow and 15 short sales in escrow. We’re seeing a lot of distressed sales. It’s no wonder that banks are folding on a daily basis.

Only 3 condos sold in the last month. However, some buyers were thinking about the upcoming ski season. An unusually high 6 condos went into escrow.

Four lots went into escrow last month and only two sold. It’s been very slow in the dirt market.

I’d love to hear your comments on any of this. I will update a few numbers as some agents haven’t been able to input their September sales in the MLS yet.

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 90 Days Median Sale $
Sept 2008
443
78
28
$417,500
$435,000

Aug 2008

499
61
34
$399,000
$443,750
July 2008
494
64
36
$396,000
$391,500
June 2008
465
57
30
$392,000
$365,000
May 2008
414
47
31
$396,000
$415,000
Apr 2008
372
44
21
$387,000
$379,000
Mar 2008
361
40
34
$402,500
$387,500
Feb 2008
374
52
16
$445,750
$412,500
Jan 2008
366
33
16
$466,500
$428,000
Dec 2007
382
28
34
$460,000
$502,000
Nov 2007
403
42
27
$415,000
$460,000
Oct 2007
353
15
39
$415,000
$425,000
Sept 2007
442
30
30
$415,000
$398,250
Aug 2007
538
45
38
$437,500
$421,500
July 2007
557
40
25
$440,000
$435,000
June 2007
552
33
35
$435,000
$440,000
May 2007
522
47
32
$465,500
$460,000
Apr 2007
423
32
28
$474,000
$392,500
Mar 2007
359
37
30
$482,500
$507,000
Feb 2007
327
25
25
$485,000
$492,500
Jan 2007
331
37
21
$475,750
$395,750
Dec 2006
339
29
40
$477,000
$497,500
Nov 2006
362
50
44
$464,000
$483,500
Oct 2006
411
55
53
$444,000
$450,000
Sept 2006
463
63
31
$449,500
$442,000
Aug 2006
548
46
36
$465,000
$427,500
July 2006
571
49
37
$480,000
$475,000
June 2006
532
51
37
$482,290
$480,000
May 2006
424
50
35
$482,580
$465,000
Apr 2006
302
50
32
$489,000
$504,000
Mar 2006
264
39
38
$495,000
$485,140
Feb 2006
262
51
21
$477,000
$489,000
Jan 2006
256
32
20
$464,500
$508,750
Dec 2005
198
n/a
31
$460,000
$450,000
Nov 2005
282
42
53
$485,000
$455,000
Oct 2005
300
69
55
$500,000
$485,000
Sept 2005
313
93
63
$495,000
$495,000
Aug 2005
270
96
79
$485,750
$510,000
July 2005
209
110
74
$482,000
$484,500
June 2005
188
113
65
$480,000
$456,000
May 2005
172
96
57
$489,000
$495,000
Apr 2005
116
91
72
$475,000
$488,500
Mar 2005
88
83
50
$440,000
$440,000
Feb 2005
72
86
34
$433,000
$449,500
Jan 2005
85
63
47
$405,000
$405,000

Price Range
Active Listings
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) Months Supply of Inventory (Sept.) Months Supply of Inventory (Aug.) Months Supply of Inventory (July)
$0-$300,000
37
4.00 (10.81%)

9.3

8.8
5.2
$300,001-$500,000
168
18.00 (2.68%)
9.3
13.8
12.4
$500,001-$750,000
112
5.67 (1.26%)
19.8
19.7
21.8
$750,001-$1,000,000
61
2.67 (1.09%)
22.9
34.0
31.5
$1,000,001-$2,000,000
50
1.00 (0.50%)
50.0
22.5
28.0
$2,000,001 and up
15
0.00 (0.00%)
n/a
n/a
n/a

* For the sake of statistical integrity, my absorption rates are no longer considering sales for the last year. They are now calculated using sales for the last 90 days. For more information on why I decided on the change, e-mail me at drew@southtahoehouses.com.


Posted on October 2, 2008 at 8:49 am
Drew Kondo | Posted in Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Real Estate Stats Aren’t Skewed in South Lake Tahoe

As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, there’s been a theory proposed by a few South Lake Tahoe real estate agents, myself included, that home prices haven’t dropped as much as the statistics show. Perhaps there’s been more activity in the lower price bands. After all, it’s been much tougher to get a jumbo loan this last year. Additionally, the majority of foreclosure and other distressed sales have occurred in the lower price bands.

If there actually was more activity in the lower price bands, this could skew the all-important median sale price. I did a little data mining recently to see if in fact the theory was true.

What affects median sale price more than anything? Square footage. So I decided to break sales up into two categories – homes up to 2,000 square feet and homes above 2,000 square feet. If speculation was correct, we’d see an abnormally large amount of homes sold below 2,000 square feet in the last year. See the table below for the results I found. Percentages in parentheses represent the decline since the previous year.

  Sales 0-2000 sqft. Sales Above 2000 sqft. Median Price 0-2000 sqft. Median Price Above 2000 sqft.
Sept. 2007-Aug. 2008
102
(-14.3%)
248
(-12.4%)
$365,000
(-11.0%)
$720,000
(-7.1%)
Sept. 2006-Aug. 2007
119
283
$410,000
$775,000

As you can see, the results of my data mining actually show the opposite of what was speculated. If speculation was correct, there wouldn’t have been such a big drop in sales of homes up to 2,000 square feet. Moreover, the decline in median price would have been greater in higher priced homes. Instead the opposite occurred.

When it comes to South Lake Tahoe real estate, the median sale price continues to stand as one of the most accurate indicators of the state of the market.


Posted on September 18, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Drew Kondo | Posted in Statistics | Tagged , , ,

August 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

South Lake Tahoe real estate saw a lot of activity in the higher price bands during August. This pushed the median sales price for single family residences to $443,750 for the month and $399,000 for the last 90 days. We are still seeing a market decline, however. In the last two weeks there have been 71 price reductions amongst the market’s ~500 single-family residences. Our month’s supply of inventory in all price bands also reflects a buyer’s market (greater than 7 months).

Speaking of activity in higher price bands, I mentioned in a previous post that many question if the decline in median sale price has truly represented the decline in home values. Perhaps the median has moved so much because there has been more activity in the lower price bands. I’ve almost finished looking at numbers that will provide some enlightening answers. Look for a post about this in the next week.

As for now, I’ll finish this up with some foreclosure, condo, and lot numbers. There were 4 foreclosure sales in August, 3 homes and one condo. Thus, foreclosures only made up 10.5% of home and condo sales. They are not dominating the market as they are in other parts of the country. There were 4 condo sales in South Lake Tahoe for August, and 4 condo sales.

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 90 Days Median Sale $
August 2008
499
61
34
$399,000
$443,750
July 2008
494
64
36
$396,000
$391,500
June 2008
465
57
30
$392,000
$365,000
May 2008
414
47
31
$396,000
$415,000
Apr 2008
372
44
21
$387,000
$379,000
Mar 2008
361
40
34
$402,500
$387,500
Feb 2008
374
52
16
$445,750
$412,500
Jan 2008
366
33
16
$466,500
$428,000
Dec 2007
382
28
34
$460,000
$502,000
Nov 2007
403
42
27
$415,000
$460,000
Oct 2007
353
15
39
$415,000
$425,000
Sept 2007
442
30
30
$415,000
$398,250
Aug 2007
538
45
38
$437,500
$421,500
July 2007
557
40
25
$440,000
$435,000
June 2007
552
33
35
$435,000
$440,000
May 2007
522
47
32
$465,500
$460,000
Apr 2007
423
32
28
$474,000
$392,500
Mar 2007
359
37
30
$482,500
$507,000
Feb 2007
327
25
25
$485,000
$492,500
Jan 2007
331
37
21
$475,750
$395,750
Dec 2006
339
29
40
 
$497,500
Nov 2006
362
50
44
 
$483,500
Oct 2006
411
55
53
 
$450,000
Sept 2006
463
63
31
 
$442,000
Aug 2006
548
46
36
 
$427,500
July 2006
571
49
37
 
$475,000
June 2006
532
51
37
 
$480,000
May 2006
424
50
35
 
$465,000
Apr 2006
302
50
32
 
$504,000
Mar 2006
264
39
38
 
$485,140
Feb 2006
262
51
21
 
$489,000
Jan 2006
256
32
20
 
$508,750
Dec 2005
198
n/a
31
 
$450,000
Nov 2005
282
42
53
 
$455,000
Oct 2005
300
69
55
 
$485,000
Sept 2005
313
93
63
 
$495,000
Aug 2005
270
96
79
 
$510,000
July 2005
209
110
74
 
$484,500
June 2005
188
113
65
 
$456,000
May 2005
172
96
57
 
$495,000
Apr 2005
116
91
72
 
$488,500
Mar 2005
88
83
50
 
$440,000
Feb 2005
72
86
34
 
$449,500
Jan 2005
85
63
47
 
$405,000

Price Range
Active Listings
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) Months Supply of Inventory
$0 – $300,000
50
4.83 (9.66%)
10.4
$300,001-$500,000
230
14.00 (6.09%)
16.4
$500,001-$750,000
138
6.33 (4.59%)
21.8
$750,001-$1,000,000
68
2.33 (3.43%)
29.2
$1,000,001-$2,000,000
60
1.58 (2.63%)
38.0
$2,000,001 and up
19
0.08 (0.42%)
228.0

Posted on September 10, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Drew Kondo | Posted in Statistics | Tagged , , , , , ,

July 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

Always trying to improve the real estate statistics I present to you, I’ve decided to mine for a new stat – median sale price for the last 90 days. I will present this statistic along with the median sale price for the last month. See the table below for the actual numbers.

What are the benefits of looking at the median sale price for the last 90 days? First, it helps minimize some of the incredible variance that occurs in a small market like South Lake Tahoe. A few high priced sales can throw off the median sale price for a single month here in South Lake. This isn’t so true when looking at sales over a 90-day span. Second, the 90-day statistic centers on a date 45 days in the past. The commonly accepted monthly median sale price centers on a date 15 days in the past. Thus, we get three times more homes, which minimizes variance, and only lose a month when it comes to keeping our stats current. If you are yet to be convinced, look at the table below. For any given month, the median price for the last 90 days, more often than not, produces a better reflection of market conditions than the median price for the month.

For those of you who’ve been following my statistical reports, you’ll notice that I’m no longer calculating median sale price over the last year (a.k.a. 12-month moving median). The statistic just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s good for looking at real estate history; and this is only true if the reader knows the data centers on a date 6 months in the past. Presenting it as current information on a month-to-month basis, however, just doesn’t make any sense.

As for now, we’re still seeing a lot of homes in escrow. We’ve had 60-70 homes in escrow at any given time in the last 2-3 months (the numbers I took from STAoR for the months previous to this one are low somehow.) And we’re finally seeing an increase in homes sold, but it still should be higher. Look at the numbers in 2005 when the market was at its peak. About 65% of escrows closed at that time. Right now we’re seeing about half close. I know a knowledgeable real estate professional who suggested that perhaps we have a bunch of really long escrows sitting out there. This would keep many of our escrows from closing. This isn’t the case, however. When I looked through South Lake Tahoe’s escrows a week ago, only 14 out of the 70 had been in escrow for more than 60 days. I think it’s just that a larger percentage of homes are falling out of escrow than we’ve seen in the past. With a tight lending industry, most buyers probably aren’t qualifying for loans. So if you’re a seller here in South Lake Tahoe, don’t be too upset about your home falling out of escrow. It’s happening to everybody.

I’ll do my best to bring you more statistics in the next week. I was only able to go back to the beginning of 2007 with the 90-day median sale price. I’d also like to give you some foreclosure, condo, and lot numbers. It’s just a very, very busy time for real estate here in South Lake Tahoe.

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 90 Days Median Sale $
July 2008
494
64
37
$395,000
$388,000
June 2008
465
57
30
$392,000
$365,000
May 2008
414
47
31
$396,000
$415,000
Apr 2008
372
44
21
$387,000
$379,000
Mar 2008
361
40
34
$402,500
$387,500
Feb 2008
374
52
16
$445,750
$412,500
Jan 2008
366
33
16
$466,500
$428,000
Dec 2007
382
28
34
$460,000
$502,000
Nov 2007
403
42
27
$415,000
$460,000
Oct 2007
353
15
39
$415,000
$425,000
Sept 2007
442
30
30
$415,000
$398,250
Aug 2007
538
45
38
$437,500
$421,500
July 2007
557
40
25
$440,000
$435,000
June 2007
552
33
35
$435,000
$440,000
May 2007
522
47
32
$465,500
$460,000
Apr 2007
423
32
28
$474,000
$392,500
Mar 2007
359
37
30
$482,500
$507,000
Feb 2007
327
25
25
$485,000
$492,500
Jan 2007
331
37
21
$475,750
$395,750
Dec 2006
339
29
40
 
$497,500
Nov 2006
362
50
44
 
$483,500
Oct 2006
411
55
53
 
$450,000
Sept 2006
463
63
31
 
$442,000
Aug 2006
548
46
36
 
$427,500
July 2006
571
49
37
 
$475,000
June 2006
532
51
37
 
$480,000
May 2006
424
50
35
 
$465,000
Apr 2006
302
50
32
 
$504,000
Mar 2006
264
39
38
 
$485,140
Feb 2006
262
51
21
 
$489,000
Jan 2006
256
32
20
 
$508,750
Dec 2005
198
n/a
31
 
$450,000
Nov 2005
282
42
53
 
$455,000
Oct 2005
300
69
55
 
$485,000
Sept 2005
313
93
63
 
$495,000
Aug 2005
270
96
79
 
$510,000
July 2005
209
110
74
 
$484,500
June 2005
188
113
65
 
$456,000
May 2005
172
96
57
 
$495,000
Apr 2005
116
91
72
 
$488,500
Mar 2005
88
83
50
 
$440,000
Feb 2005
72
86
34
 
$449,500
Jan 2005
85
63
47
 
$405,000

Price Range
Active Listings
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) Months Supply of Inventory
$0 – $300,000
33
4.92 (14.91%)
6.7
$300,001-$500,000
195
13.75 (7.05%)
14.2
$500,001 – $750,000
131
6.08 (4.64%)
21.5
$750,001 – $1,000,000
63
2.50 (3.97%)
25.2
$1,000,001 – $2,000,000
56
1.83 (3.27%)
30.6
$2,000,001 and up
16
0.08 (0.52%)
192

Posted on August 5, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Drew Kondo | Posted in Statistics | Tagged , , , ,

June 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

As predicted, the median sale price for single-family residences in South Lake Tahoe dropped dramatically in June, down to $365,000. The market is certainly suffering. However, I’m becoming skeptical of the statistical barometers we continue to rely upon. Perhaps the steep decline in median sale price doesn’t quite reflect what’s happened to home values here in South Lake Tahoe. Perhaps the decline in median sale price is due in large part to increased activity in the lower price bands. Given how tight the lending market has been with jumbo loans, this is a valid hypothesis. I’ll dig through some data in the next few days to see if I can find numbers to support.

The foreclosure market was active in June with 6 foreclosure escrows of the 37 homes that went into escrow for the month. There were also 3 short sale properties that went into escrow. As of today, there are 9 foreclosure single-family residences on the market.

Lot sales and condo sales were few and far between in June. Five condos sold and 4 went into escrow. Six lots sold and 5 went into escrow in June.

Activity has increased in the 1 to 2 million dollar price band. This price band has averaged 1.75 sales per month over the last year. However, 4 sold in June, and right now there are 5 homes in escrow that were listed between 1 and 2 million dollars.

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 12 Mths. Median Sale $
June 2008
465
57
30
$415,000
$365,000
May 2008
414
47
31
$425,000
$415,000
Apr 2008
372
44
21
$428,000
$379,000
Mar 2008
361
40
34
$425,000
$387,500
Feb 2008
374
52
16
$435,750
$412,500
Jan 2008
366
33
16
$449,900
$428,000
Dec 2007
382
28
34
$449,900
$502,000
Nov 2007
403
42
27
$445,000
$460,000
Oct 2007
353
15
39
$450,000
$425,000
Sept 2007
442
30
30
$450,000
$398,250
Aug 2007
538
45
38
$464,000
$421,500
July 2007
557
40
25
$463,000
$435,000
June 2007
552
33
35
$465,000
$440,000
May 2007
522
47
32
$465,300
$460,000
Apr 2007
423
32
28
$465,150
$392,500
Mar 2007
359
37
30
$475,000
$507,000
Feb 2007
327
25
25
$474,250
$492,500
Jan 2007
331
37
21
$474,500
$395,750
Dec 2006
339
29
40
$476,000
$497,500
Nov 2006
362
50
44
$474,500
$483,500
Oct 2006
411
55
53
$465,000
$450,000
Sept 2006
463
63
31
$474,500
$442,000
Aug 2006
548
46
36
$475,000
$427,500
July 2006
571
49
37
$485,000
$475,000
June 2006
532
51
37
$485,000
$480,000
May 2006
424
50
35
$485,000
$465,000
Apr 2006
302
50
32
$489,000
$504,000
Mar 2006
264
39
38
$489,000
$485,140
Feb 2006
262
51
21
$485,000
$489,000
Jan 2006
256
32
20
$482,000
$508,750
Dec 2005
198
n/a
31
$475,000
$450,000
Nov 2005
282
42
53
$475,000
$455,000
Oct 2005
300
69
55
$465,000
$485,000
Sept 2005
313
93
63
$455,000
$495,000
Aug 2005
270
96
79
$446,000
$510,000
July 2005
209
110
74
$430,000
$484,500
June 2005
188
113
65
$425,000
$456,000
May 2005
172
96
57
$410,000
$495,000
Apr 2005
116
91
72
$399,000
$488,500
Mar 2005
88
83
50
$390,000
$440,000
Feb 2005
72
86
34
$390,000
$449,500
Jan 2005
85
63
47
$383,250
$405,000

Posted on July 9, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Drew Kondo | Posted in Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) and Absorption Rates in Real Estate

I love real estate statistics. I got a math degree from the University of Texas, so I could make a career of real estate stats. In this blog, I’ll keep things relatively simple.

In efforts to improve the statistics I present you, I am beginning to mine for and calculate absorption rates and months supplies of inventory for you. These stats are important because they reflect how a market is doing. They also help savvy buyers and sellers establish and meet their goals.

Absorption rate – the rate at which real estate is sold, or absorbed, in a specific area

I calculate absorption rates in terms of homes sold per month. Thus, for South Lake Tahoe the absorption rate is the number of homes sold in the last year, 341, divided by the months in a year, twelve. 28.4 homes are sold per month in South Lake Tahoe. This is the absorption rate. (Feel free to skip the rest of this paragraph.) Some people like to express absorption rates in relation to the amount of inventory. Our inventory in South Lake Tahoe is 476 homes. Thus, 28.4 homes is 5.97% of the inventory; so the absorption rate is 5.97% of the inventory per month.

Months supply of inventory (MSI) – an estimation of how long it will take for all the market’s homes to be sold, or absorbed, based on how many homes are currently on the market and the rate homes have sold in the past (absorption rate).

This is pretty simple. If 28.4 homes are sold per month in South Lake Tahoe, how long will it take to sell 476 homes? Divide homes by homes sold per month (476/28.4 = ???). It will take 16.76 months to sell all the houses. This is the months supply of inventory (MSI). You may now be asking, “Who cares? New homes are listed all the time. You’ll never sell the entire inventory in South Lake Tahoe.”

This is true. MSI is simply used to compare the size of an inventory to the rate of sale. This is very important. MSI is a great indicator of how balanced a market is.

MSI less than 5 months = seller’s market
MSI equals 5-7 months = balanced market
MSI greater than 7 months = buyer’s market

These guidelines are not fool-proof. Notice in the table below there is a 6.7 month supply of inventory in the sub-$300,000 price band in South Lake Tahoe. Any seller in this price band will tell you it’s not a balanced market. The buyers continue to call the shots. The MSI stat was skewed in this price band by desperate sellers, especially banks, who bent over backward in the last year for buyers. Thus, the absorption rate was increased, which decreased the MSI.

So how can these stats help you? I’ll preface the answer by saying that no mathematical model can be used to determine what will happen in real estate. There are way too many factors involved. That having been said …

For sellers, these stats will tell you how much competition you have. Let’s consider a seller with a $1,500,000 listing in South Lake Tahoe. With almost 33 months of inventory, he better think about some serious price reductions if he wants to sell soon. The seller with a sub-$500,000 listing (6.7-13.3 months of inventory) should also think about a price cut. However, there is a greater chance he’ll get lucky and find a buyer who loves his home and qualifies for a loan.

For buyers, MSI will tell you how negotiable sellers may be in different markets. If there are 3.5 months of inventory in Bangladesh and 10.2 months of inventory in Baghdad, the sellers in Baghdad will probably be more negotiable.

If you have questions about these statistics feel free to comment, e-mail me (dkondo@chaseinternational.com), or call me (530-545-1831).

South Lake Tahoe real estate statistics as of 7/1/2008

Price Range
Active Listings
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) Months Supply of Inventory
$0 – $300,000
32
4.75 (14.84%)
6.7
$300,001-$500,000
173
13.00 (7.51%)
13.3
$500,001- $750,000
127
6.33 (4.99%)
20.1
$750,001- $1,000,000
68
2.50 (3.68%)
27.2
$1,000,001- $2,000,000
57
1.75 (3.07%)
32.6
$2,000,001 and up
16
0.08 (0.52%)
192

Posted on July 7, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Drew Kondo | Posted in Statistics | Tagged , , , , , ,

May 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

After some of the statistical revelation I experienced over the last week, it’s become much easier to make conclusions on this market that can be validated with empirical evidence.

The median sale price for single family residences increased 9.5%, from $379,000 in April to $415,000 in May. Unfortunately, this is not evidence of a market turnaround. Most of the buyers who acquired property in May were simply higher priced buyers. Of the homes sold so far in June, nothing has closed above $350,000.

Prices in South Lake Tahoe will continue to drop. Look to see around twenty foreclosures hit the market this summer and even more later this year. The foreclosures are being priced very low, and they continue to force sellers to lower their prices to compete. There were sixty price reductions in the MLS over the last two weeks. We’ll see hundreds more over the summer.

A piece of positive news is that buyer activity is increasing. We saw more homes go into escrow last spring than in the spring of 2007. Right now, there are sixty-four homes in escrow. We haven’t seen that many escrows at one time since October 2005! The bottom of this market may be in sight.

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 12 Mths. Median Sale $
May 2008

414

47

31

$425,000

$415,000

Apr 2008

372

44

21

$428,000

$379,000

Mar 2008

361

40

34

$425,000

$387,500

Feb 2008

374

52

16

$435,750

$412,500

Jan 2008

366

33

16

$449,900

$428,000

Dec 2007

382

28

34

$449,900

$502,000

Nov 2007

403

42

27

$445,000

$460,000

Oct 2007

353

15

39

$450,000

$425,000

Sept 2007

442

30

30

$450,000

$398,250

Aug 2007

538

45

38

$464,000

$421,500

July 2007

557

40

25

$463,000

$435,000

June 2007

552

33

35

$465,000

$440,000

May 2007

522

47

32

$465,300

$460,000

Apr 2007

423

32

28

$465,150

$392,500

Mar 2007

359

37

30

$475,000

$507,000

Feb 2007

327

25

25

$474,250

$492,500

Jan 2007

331

37

21

$474,500

$395,750

Dec 2006

339

29

40

$476,000

$497,500

Nov 2006

362

50

44

$474,500

$483,500

Oct 2006

411

55

53

$465,000

$450,000

Sept 2006

463

63

31

$474,500

$442,000

Aug 2006

548

46

36

$475,000

$427,500

July 2006

571

49

37

$485,000

$475,000

June 2006

532

51

37

$485,000

$480,000

May 2006

424

50

35

$485,000

$465,000

Apr 2006

302

50

32

$489,000

$504,000

Mar 2006

264

39

38

$489,000

$485,140

Feb 2006

262

51

21

$485,000

$489,000

Jan 2006

256

32

20

$482,000

$508,750

Dec 2005

198

n/a

31

$475,000

$450,000

Nov 2005

282

42

53

$475,000

$455,000

Oct 2005

300

69

55

$465,000

$485,000

Sept 2005

313

93

63

$455,000

$495,000

Aug 2005

270

96

79

$446,000

$510,000

July 2005

209

110

74

$430,000

$484,500

June 2005

188

113

65

$425,000

$456,000

May 2005

172

96

57

$410,000

$495,000

Apr 2005

116

91

72

$399,000

$488,500

Mar 2005

88

83

50

$390,000

$440,000

Feb 2005

72

86

34

$390,000

$449,500

Jan 2005

85

63

47

$383,250

$405,000

Price Range

Active Listings

$0 – $250,000

6

$250,001 – $300,000

21

$300,001 – $400,000

81

$400,001 – $500,000

67

$500,001 – $600,000

60

$600,001 – $700,000

38

$700,001 – $800,000

34

$800,001 – $900,000

22

$900,001 – $1,000,000

21

$1,000,001 and up

64


Posted on June 13, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Drew Kondo | Posted in Foreclosures, Statistics | Tagged , , ,