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July 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate
Always trying to improve the real estate statistics I present to you, I’ve decided to mine for a new stat – median sale price for the last 90 days. I will present this statistic along with the median sale price for the last month. See the table below for the actual numbers.
What are the benefits of looking at the median sale price for the last 90 days? First, it helps minimize some of the incredible variance that occurs in a small market like South Lake Tahoe. A few high priced sales can throw off the median sale price for a single month here in South Lake. This isn’t so true when looking at sales over a 90-day span. Second, the 90-day statistic centers on a date 45 days in the past. The commonly accepted monthly median sale price centers on a date 15 days in the past. Thus, we get three times more homes, which minimizes variance, and only lose a month when it comes to keeping our stats current. If you are yet to be convinced, look at the table below. For any given month, the median price for the last 90 days, more often than not, produces a better reflection of market conditions than the median price for the month.
For those of you who’ve been following my statistical reports, you’ll notice that I’m no longer calculating median sale price over the last year (a.k.a. 12-month moving median). The statistic just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s good for looking at real estate history; and this is only true if the reader knows the data centers on a date 6 months in the past. Presenting it as current information on a month-to-month basis, however, just doesn’t make any sense.
As for now, we’re still seeing a lot of homes in escrow. We’ve had 60-70 homes in escrow at any given time in the last 2-3 months (the numbers I took from STAoR for the months previous to this one are low somehow.) And we’re finally seeing an increase in homes sold, but it still should be higher. Look at the numbers in 2005 when the market was at its peak. About 65% of escrows closed at that time. Right now we’re seeing about half close. I know a knowledgeable real estate professional who suggested that perhaps we have a bunch of really long escrows sitting out there. This would keep many of our escrows from closing. This isn’t the case, however. When I looked through South Lake Tahoe’s escrows a week ago, only 14 out of the 70 had been in escrow for more than 60 days. I think it’s just that a larger percentage of homes are falling out of escrow than we’ve seen in the past. With a tight lending industry, most buyers probably aren’t qualifying for loans. So if you’re a seller here in South Lake Tahoe, don’t be too upset about your home falling out of escrow. It’s happening to everybody.
I’ll do my best to bring you more statistics in the next week. I was only able to go back to the beginning of 2007 with the 90-day median sale price. I’d also like to give you some foreclosure, condo, and lot numbers. It’s just a very, very busy time for real estate here in South Lake Tahoe.
| Month & Year | Listings at Month’s End | Escrows at Month’s End | Homes Sold | Median $ Over Last 90 Days | Median Sale $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2008 |
494
|
64
|
37
|
$395,000
|
$388,000
|
| June 2008 |
465
|
57
|
30
|
$392,000
|
$365,000
|
| May 2008 |
414
|
47
|
31
|
$396,000
|
$415,000
|
| Apr 2008 |
372
|
44
|
21
|
$387,000
|
$379,000
|
| Mar 2008 |
361
|
40
|
34
|
$402,500
|
$387,500
|
| Feb 2008 |
374
|
52
|
16
|
$445,750
|
$412,500
|
| Jan 2008 |
366
|
33
|
16
|
$466,500
|
$428,000
|
| Dec 2007 |
382
|
28
|
34
|
$460,000
|
$502,000
|
| Nov 2007 |
403
|
42
|
27
|
$415,000
|
$460,000
|
| Oct 2007 |
353
|
15
|
39
|
$415,000
|
$425,000
|
| Sept 2007 |
442
|
30
|
30
|
$415,000
|
$398,250
|
| Aug 2007 |
538
|
45
|
38
|
$437,500
|
$421,500
|
| July 2007 |
557
|
40
|
25
|
$440,000
|
$435,000
|
| June 2007 |
552
|
33
|
35
|
$435,000
|
$440,000
|
| May 2007 |
522
|
47
|
32
|
$465,500
|
$460,000
|
| Apr 2007 |
423
|
32
|
28
|
$474,000
|
$392,500
|
| Mar 2007 |
359
|
37
|
30
|
$482,500
|
$507,000
|
| Feb 2007 |
327
|
25
|
25
|
$485,000
|
$492,500
|
| Jan 2007 |
331
|
37
|
21
|
$475,750
|
$395,750
|
| Dec 2006 |
339
|
29
|
40
|
$497,500
|
|
| Nov 2006 |
362
|
50
|
44
|
$483,500
|
|
| Oct 2006 |
411
|
55
|
53
|
$450,000
|
|
| Sept 2006 |
463
|
63
|
31
|
$442,000
|
|
| Aug 2006 |
548
|
46
|
36
|
$427,500
|
|
| July 2006 |
571
|
49
|
37
|
$475,000
|
|
| June 2006 |
532
|
51
|
37
|
$480,000
|
|
| May 2006 |
424
|
50
|
35
|
$465,000
|
|
| Apr 2006 |
302
|
50
|
32
|
$504,000
|
|
| Mar 2006 |
264
|
39
|
38
|
$485,140
|
|
| Feb 2006 |
262
|
51
|
21
|
$489,000
|
|
| Jan 2006 |
256
|
32
|
20
|
$508,750
|
|
| Dec 2005 |
198
|
n/a
|
31
|
$450,000
|
|
| Nov 2005 |
282
|
42
|
53
|
$455,000
|
|
| Oct 2005 |
300
|
69
|
55
|
$485,000
|
|
| Sept 2005 |
313
|
93
|
63
|
$495,000
|
|
| Aug 2005 |
270
|
96
|
79
|
$510,000
|
|
| July 2005 |
209
|
110
|
74
|
$484,500
|
|
| June 2005 |
188
|
113
|
65
|
$456,000
|
|
| May 2005 |
172
|
96
|
57
|
$495,000
|
|
| Apr 2005 |
116
|
91
|
72
|
$488,500
|
|
| Mar 2005 |
88
|
83
|
50
|
$440,000
|
|
| Feb 2005 |
72
|
86
|
34
|
$449,500
|
|
| Jan 2005 |
85
|
63
|
47
|
$405,000
|
|
Price Range
|
Active Listings
|
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) | Months Supply of Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0 – $300,000 |
33
|
4.92 (14.91%)
|
6.7
|
| $300,001-$500,000 |
195
|
13.75 (7.05%)
|
14.2
|
| $500,001 – $750,000 |
131
|
6.08 (4.64%)
|
21.5
|
| $750,001 – $1,000,000 |
63
|
2.50 (3.97%)
|
25.2
|
| $1,000,001 – $2,000,000 |
56
|
1.83 (3.27%)
|
30.6
|
| $2,000,001 and up |
16
|
0.08 (0.52%)
|
192
|
June 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate
As predicted, the median sale price for single-family residences in South Lake Tahoe dropped dramatically in June, down to $365,000. The market is certainly suffering. However, I’m becoming skeptical of the statistical barometers we continue to rely upon. Perhaps the steep decline in median sale price doesn’t quite reflect what’s happened to home values here in South Lake Tahoe. Perhaps the decline in median sale price is due in large part to increased activity in the lower price bands. Given how tight the lending market has been with jumbo loans, this is a valid hypothesis. I’ll dig through some data in the next few days to see if I can find numbers to support.
The foreclosure market was active in June with 6 foreclosure escrows of the 37 homes that went into escrow for the month. There were also 3 short sale properties that went into escrow. As of today, there are 9 foreclosure single-family residences on the market.
Lot sales and condo sales were few and far between in June. Five condos sold and 4 went into escrow. Six lots sold and 5 went into escrow in June.
Activity has increased in the 1 to 2 million dollar price band. This price band has averaged 1.75 sales per month over the last year. However, 4 sold in June, and right now there are 5 homes in escrow that were listed between 1 and 2 million dollars.
| Month & Year | Listings at Month’s End | Escrows at Month’s End | Homes Sold | Median $ Over Last 12 Mths. | Median Sale $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2008 |
465
|
57
|
30
|
$415,000
|
$365,000
|
| May 2008 |
414
|
47
|
31
|
$425,000
|
$415,000
|
| Apr 2008 |
372
|
44
|
21
|
$428,000
|
$379,000
|
| Mar 2008 |
361
|
40
|
34
|
$425,000
|
$387,500
|
| Feb 2008 |
374
|
52
|
16
|
$435,750
|
$412,500
|
| Jan 2008 |
366
|
33
|
16
|
$449,900
|
$428,000
|
| Dec 2007 |
382
|
28
|
34
|
$449,900
|
$502,000
|
| Nov 2007 |
403
|
42
|
27
|
$445,000
|
$460,000
|
| Oct 2007 |
353
|
15
|
39
|
$450,000
|
$425,000
|
| Sept 2007 |
442
|
30
|
30
|
$450,000
|
$398,250
|
| Aug 2007 |
538
|
45
|
38
|
$464,000
|
$421,500
|
| July 2007 |
557
|
40
|
25
|
$463,000
|
$435,000
|
| June 2007 |
552
|
33
|
35
|
$465,000
|
$440,000
|
| May 2007 |
522
|
47
|
32
|
$465,300
|
$460,000
|
| Apr 2007 |
423
|
32
|
28
|
$465,150
|
$392,500
|
| Mar 2007 |
359
|
37
|
30
|
$475,000
|
$507,000
|
| Feb 2007 |
327
|
25
|
25
|
$474,250
|
$492,500
|
| Jan 2007 |
331
|
37
|
21
|
$474,500
|
$395,750
|
| Dec 2006 |
339
|
29
|
40
|
$476,000
|
$497,500
|
| Nov 2006 |
362
|
50
|
44
|
$474,500
|
$483,500
|
| Oct 2006 |
411
|
55
|
53
|
$465,000
|
$450,000
|
| Sept 2006 |
463
|
63
|
31
|
$474,500
|
$442,000
|
| Aug 2006 |
548
|
46
|
36
|
$475,000
|
$427,500
|
| July 2006 |
571
|
49
|
37
|
$485,000
|
$475,000
|
| June 2006 |
532
|
51
|
37
|
$485,000
|
$480,000
|
| May 2006 |
424
|
50
|
35
|
$485,000
|
$465,000
|
| Apr 2006 |
302
|
50
|
32
|
$489,000
|
$504,000
|
| Mar 2006 |
264
|
39
|
38
|
$489,000
|
$485,140
|
| Feb 2006 |
262
|
51
|
21
|
$485,000
|
$489,000
|
| Jan 2006 |
256
|
32
|
20
|
$482,000
|
$508,750
|
| Dec 2005 |
198
|
n/a
|
31
|
$475,000
|
$450,000
|
| Nov 2005 |
282
|
42
|
53
|
$475,000
|
$455,000
|
| Oct 2005 |
300
|
69
|
55
|
$465,000
|
$485,000
|
| Sept 2005 |
313
|
93
|
63
|
$455,000
|
$495,000
|
| Aug 2005 |
270
|
96
|
79
|
$446,000
|
$510,000
|
| July 2005 |
209
|
110
|
74
|
$430,000
|
$484,500
|
| June 2005 |
188
|
113
|
65
|
$425,000
|
$456,000
|
| May 2005 |
172
|
96
|
57
|
$410,000
|
$495,000
|
| Apr 2005 |
116
|
91
|
72
|
$399,000
|
$488,500
|
| Mar 2005 |
88
|
83
|
50
|
$390,000
|
$440,000
|
| Feb 2005 |
72
|
86
|
34
|
$390,000
|
$449,500
|
| Jan 2005 |
85
|
63
|
47
|
$383,250
|
$405,000
|
May 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate
After some of the statistical revelation I experienced over the last week, it’s become much easier to make conclusions on this market that can be validated with empirical evidence.
The median sale price for single family residences increased 9.5%, from $379,000 in April to $415,000 in May. Unfortunately, this is not evidence of a market turnaround. Most of the buyers who acquired property in May were simply higher priced buyers. Of the homes sold so far in June, nothing has closed above $350,000.
Prices in South Lake Tahoe will continue to drop. Look to see around twenty foreclosures hit the market this summer and even more later this year. The foreclosures are being priced very low, and they continue to force sellers to lower their prices to compete. There were sixty price reductions in the MLS over the last two weeks. We’ll see hundreds more over the summer.
A piece of positive news is that buyer activity is increasing. We saw more homes go into escrow last spring than in the spring of 2007. Right now, there are sixty-four homes in escrow. We haven’t seen that many escrows at one time since October 2005! The bottom of this market may be in sight.
| Month & Year | Listings at Month’s End | Escrows at Month’s End | Homes Sold | Median $ Over Last 12 Mths. | Median Sale $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2008 |
414 |
47 |
31 |
$425,000 |
$415,000 |
| Apr 2008 |
372 |
44 |
21 |
$428,000 |
$379,000 |
| Mar 2008 |
361 |
40 |
34 |
$425,000 |
$387,500 |
| Feb 2008 |
374 |
52 |
16 |
$435,750 |
$412,500 |
| Jan 2008 |
366 |
33 |
16 |
$449,900 |
$428,000 |
| Dec 2007 |
382 |
28 |
34 |
$449,900 |
$502,000 |
| Nov 2007 |
403 |
42 |
27 |
$445,000 |
$460,000 |
| Oct 2007 |
353 |
15 |
39 |
$450,000 |
$425,000 |
| Sept 2007 |
442 |
30 |
30 |
$450,000 |
$398,250 |
| Aug 2007 |
538 |
45 |
38 |
$464,000 |
$421,500 |
| July 2007 |
557 |
40 |
25 |
$463,000 |
$435,000 |
| June 2007 |
552 |
33 |
35 |
$465,000 |
$440,000 |
| May 2007 |
522 |
47 |
32 |
$465,300 |
$460,000 |
| Apr 2007 |
423 |
32 |
28 |
$465,150 |
$392,500 |
| Mar 2007 |
359 |
37 |
30 |
$475,000 |
$507,000 |
| Feb 2007 |
327 |
25 |
25 |
$474,250 |
$492,500 |
| Jan 2007 |
331 |
37 |
21 |
$474,500 |
$395,750 |
| Dec 2006 |
339 |
29 |
40 |
$476,000 |
$497,500 |
| Nov 2006 |
362 |
50 |
44 |
$474,500 |
$483,500 |
| Oct 2006 |
411 |
55 |
53 |
$465,000 |
$450,000 |
| Sept 2006 |
463 |
63 |
31 |
$474,500 |
$442,000 |
| Aug 2006 |
548 |
46 |
36 |
$475,000 |
$427,500 |
| July 2006 |
571 |
49 |
37 |
$485,000 |
$475,000 |
| June 2006 |
532 |
51 |
37 |
$485,000 |
$480,000 |
| May 2006 |
424 |
50 |
35 |
$485,000 |
$465,000 |
| Apr 2006 |
302 |
50 |
32 |
$489,000 |
$504,000 |
| Mar 2006 |
264 |
39 |
38 |
$489,000 |
$485,140 |
| Feb 2006 |
262 |
51 |
21 |
$485,000 |
$489,000 |
| Jan 2006 |
256 |
32 |
20 |
$482,000 |
$508,750 |
| Dec 2005 |
198 |
n/a |
31 |
$475,000 |
$450,000 |
| Nov 2005 |
282 |
42 |
53 |
$475,000 |
$455,000 |
| Oct 2005 |
300 |
69 |
55 |
$465,000 |
$485,000 |
| Sept 2005 |
313 |
93 |
63 |
$455,000 |
$495,000 |
| Aug 2005 |
270 |
96 |
79 |
$446,000 |
$510,000 |
| July 2005 |
209 |
110 |
74 |
$430,000 |
$484,500 |
| June 2005 |
188 |
113 |
65 |
$425,000 |
$456,000 |
| May 2005 |
172 |
96 |
57 |
$410,000 |
$495,000 |
| Apr 2005 |
116 |
91 |
72 |
$399,000 |
$488,500 |
| Mar 2005 |
88 |
83 |
50 |
$390,000 |
$440,000 |
| Feb 2005 |
72 |
86 |
34 |
$390,000 |
$449,500 |
| Jan 2005 |
85 |
63 |
47 |
$383,250 |
$405,000 |
|
Price Range |
Active Listings |
|---|---|
| $0 – $250,000 |
6 |
| $250,001 – $300,000 |
21 |
| $300,001 – $400,000 |
81 |
| $400,001 – $500,000 |
67 |
| $500,001 – $600,000 |
60 |
| $600,001 – $700,000 |
38 |
| $700,001 – $800,000 |
34 |
| $800,001 – $900,000 |
22 |
| $900,001 – $1,000,000 |
21 |
| $1,000,001 and up |
64 |
A Harder Look at Real Estate Statistics
The South Tahoe Association of Realtors (STAoR) staff went to a C.A.R. conference last week. Thus, they didn’t publish May market statistics until today. Honestly, I got impatient a few days ago and started mining our MLS for data. I had no idea what I was in for!
Two days, six phone calls, and five hours of data mining later, I have just a few nuggets for you. I’ll give you the biggest nugget first: The monthly median sold price that STAoR presents to us isn’t actually the median for that specific month. It is the median for the past twelve months. To clarify, STAoR gave us a median sales price of $428,000 for April 2008. I searched our MLS and found the following:
Median sales price for homes sold 4/1/08 to 4/30/08 – $379,000
Median sales price for homes sold 4/30/07 to 4/30/08 – $428,000
In fact, here’s a good bit of the data that I overturned:
| Month & Year | Listings at Month’s End | Escrows at Month’s End | Homes Sold | Median $ Over Last 12 Mths. | Median Sale $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2008 |
414 |
47 |
31 |
$425,000 |
$415,000 |
| Apr 2008 |
372 |
44 |
21 |
$428,000 |
$379,000 |
| Mar 2008 |
361 |
40 |
34 |
$425,000 |
$387,500 |
| Feb 2008 |
374 |
52 |
16 |
$435,750 |
$412,500 |
| Jan 2008 |
366 |
33 |
16 |
$449,900 |
$428,000 |
| Dec 2007 |
382 |
28 |
34 |
$449,900 |
$502,000 |
| Nov 2007 |
403 |
42 |
27 |
$445,000 |
$460,000 |
| Oct 2007 |
353 |
15 |
39 |
$450,000 |
$425,000 |
| Sept 2007 |
442 |
30 |
30 |
$450,000 |
$398,250 |
| Aug 2007 |
538 |
45 |
38 |
$464,000 |
$421,500 |
| July 2007 |
557 |
40 |
25 |
$463,000 |
$435,000 |
| June 2007 |
552 |
33 |
35 |
$465,000 |
$440,000 |
| May 2007 |
522 |
47 |
32 |
$465,300 |
$460,000 |
| Apr 2007 |
423 |
32 |
28 |
$465,150 |
$392,500 |
| Mar 2007 |
359 |
37 |
30 |
$475,000 |
$507,000 |
| Feb 2007 |
327 |
25 |
25 |
$474,250 |
$492,500 |
| Jan 2007 |
331 |
37 |
21 |
$474,500 |
$395,750 |
| Dec 2006 |
339 |
29 |
40 |
$476,000 |
$497,500 |
| Nov 2006 |
362 |
50 |
44 |
$474,500 |
$483,500 |
| Oct 2006 |
411 |
55 |
53 |
$465,000 |
$450,000 |
| Sept 2006 |
463 |
63 |
31 |
$474,500 |
$442,000 |
| Aug 2006 |
548 |
46 |
36 |
$475,000 |
$427,500 |
| July 2006 |
571 |
49 |
37 |
$485,000 |
$475,000 |
| June 2006 |
532 |
51 |
37 |
$485,000 |
$480,000 |
| May 2006 |
424 |
50 |
35 |
$485,000 |
$465,000 |
| Apr 2006 |
302 |
50 |
32 |
$489,000 |
$504,000 |
| Mar 2006 |
264 |
39 |
38 |
$489,000 |
$485,140 |
| Feb 2006 |
262 |
51 |
21 |
$485,000 |
$489,000 |
| Jan 2006 |
256 |
32 |
20 |
$482,000 |
$508,750 |
| Dec 2005 |
198 |
n/a |
31 |
$475,000 |
$450,000 |
| Nov 2005 |
282 |
42 |
53 |
$475,000 |
$455,000 |
| Oct 2005 |
300 |
69 |
55 |
$465,000 |
$485,000 |
| Sept 2005 |
313 |
93 |
63 |
$455,000 |
$495,000 |
| Aug 2005 |
270 |
96 |
79 |
$446,000 |
$510,000 |
| July 2005 |
209 |
110 |
74 |
$430,000 |
$484,500 |
| June 2005 |
188 |
113 |
65 |
$425,000 |
$456,000 |
| May 2005 |
172 |
96 |
57 |
$410,000 |
$495,000 |
| Apr 2005 |
116 |
91 |
72 |
$399,000 |
$488,500 |
| Mar 2005 |
88 |
83 |
50 |
$390,000 |
$440,000 |
| Feb 2005 |
72 |
86 |
34 |
$390,000 |
$449,500 |
| Jan 2005 |
85 |
63 |
47 |
$383,250 |
$405,000 |
Before I continue, I’ll relay a couple things told to me by STAoR staff over the last two days. First, they are not the only ones who present data in this manner. They say that many boards in small markets do the same thing. There is good reason for this. It smoothes data and eliminates variance. With few homes being sold monthly in small markets like South Lake Tahoe, there can be spikes or depressions in the data that don’t accurately reflect the market. For instance, let’s say sixteen homes will be sold in June 2008 (extremely unlikely, but it happened in January and February). If nine of these homes are closed at over one million dollars, the median will be over one million, which is more than double the actual median value of South Lake Tahoe homes. STAoR eliminates variance by incorporating a larger data set.
They aren’t truly presenting a median sales price, however. Their statistic is more like the 50-day moving average that stock market analysts use. In fact, I call their stat a 12-month moving median. There are two problems with it: 1) It does not reflect what actually happened in a month; and 2) its data centers on a date half a year in the past. Check out the table. The 12-month moving median peaks in March and April of 2006. However, the market really peaked seven months earlier in August 2005. If someone was basing a decision to sell a few years ago on this set of data, they would have been seven months late and more than a few dollars short! In the same breath, when the market bottoms out, the 12-month moving median won’t reflect this until half a year later. It is in cases like this that the actual median is much more helpful in decision making.
I’ll be posting more reflections on my data mining in the next few days.
