July 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

Always trying to improve the real estate statistics I present to you, I’ve decided to mine for a new stat – median sale price for the last 90 days. I will present this statistic along with the median sale price for the last month. See the table below for the actual numbers.

What are the benefits of looking at the median sale price for the last 90 days? First, it helps minimize some of the incredible variance that occurs in a small market like South Lake Tahoe. A few high priced sales can throw off the median sale price for a single month here in South Lake. This isn’t so true when looking at sales over a 90-day span. Second, the 90-day statistic centers on a date 45 days in the past. The commonly accepted monthly median sale price centers on a date 15 days in the past. Thus, we get three times more homes, which minimizes variance, and only lose a month when it comes to keeping our stats current. If you are yet to be convinced, look at the table below. For any given month, the median price for the last 90 days, more often than not, produces a better reflection of market conditions than the median price for the month.

For those of you who’ve been following my statistical reports, you’ll notice that I’m no longer calculating median sale price over the last year (a.k.a. 12-month moving median). The statistic just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s good for looking at real estate history; and this is only true if the reader knows the data centers on a date 6 months in the past. Presenting it as current information on a month-to-month basis, however, just doesn’t make any sense.

As for now, we’re still seeing a lot of homes in escrow. We’ve had 60-70 homes in escrow at any given time in the last 2-3 months (the numbers I took from STAoR for the months previous to this one are low somehow.) And we’re finally seeing an increase in homes sold, but it still should be higher. Look at the numbers in 2005 when the market was at its peak. About 65% of escrows closed at that time. Right now we’re seeing about half close. I know a knowledgeable real estate professional who suggested that perhaps we have a bunch of really long escrows sitting out there. This would keep many of our escrows from closing. This isn’t the case, however. When I looked through South Lake Tahoe’s escrows a week ago, only 14 out of the 70 had been in escrow for more than 60 days. I think it’s just that a larger percentage of homes are falling out of escrow than we’ve seen in the past. With a tight lending industry, most buyers probably aren’t qualifying for loans. So if you’re a seller here in South Lake Tahoe, don’t be too upset about your home falling out of escrow. It’s happening to everybody.

I’ll do my best to bring you more statistics in the next week. I was only able to go back to the beginning of 2007 with the 90-day median sale price. I’d also like to give you some foreclosure, condo, and lot numbers. It’s just a very, very busy time for real estate here in South Lake Tahoe.

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 90 Days Median Sale $
July 2008
494
64
37
$395,000
$388,000
June 2008
465
57
30
$392,000
$365,000
May 2008
414
47
31
$396,000
$415,000
Apr 2008
372
44
21
$387,000
$379,000
Mar 2008
361
40
34
$402,500
$387,500
Feb 2008
374
52
16
$445,750
$412,500
Jan 2008
366
33
16
$466,500
$428,000
Dec 2007
382
28
34
$460,000
$502,000
Nov 2007
403
42
27
$415,000
$460,000
Oct 2007
353
15
39
$415,000
$425,000
Sept 2007
442
30
30
$415,000
$398,250
Aug 2007
538
45
38
$437,500
$421,500
July 2007
557
40
25
$440,000
$435,000
June 2007
552
33
35
$435,000
$440,000
May 2007
522
47
32
$465,500
$460,000
Apr 2007
423
32
28
$474,000
$392,500
Mar 2007
359
37
30
$482,500
$507,000
Feb 2007
327
25
25
$485,000
$492,500
Jan 2007
331
37
21
$475,750
$395,750
Dec 2006
339
29
40
 
$497,500
Nov 2006
362
50
44
 
$483,500
Oct 2006
411
55
53
 
$450,000
Sept 2006
463
63
31
 
$442,000
Aug 2006
548
46
36
 
$427,500
July 2006
571
49
37
 
$475,000
June 2006
532
51
37
 
$480,000
May 2006
424
50
35
 
$465,000
Apr 2006
302
50
32
 
$504,000
Mar 2006
264
39
38
 
$485,140
Feb 2006
262
51
21
 
$489,000
Jan 2006
256
32
20
 
$508,750
Dec 2005
198
n/a
31
 
$450,000
Nov 2005
282
42
53
 
$455,000
Oct 2005
300
69
55
 
$485,000
Sept 2005
313
93
63
 
$495,000
Aug 2005
270
96
79
 
$510,000
July 2005
209
110
74
 
$484,500
June 2005
188
113
65
 
$456,000
May 2005
172
96
57
 
$495,000
Apr 2005
116
91
72
 
$488,500
Mar 2005
88
83
50
 
$440,000
Feb 2005
72
86
34
 
$449,500
Jan 2005
85
63
47
 
$405,000

Price Range
Active Listings
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) Months Supply of Inventory
$0 – $300,000
33
4.92 (14.91%)
6.7
$300,001-$500,000
195
13.75 (7.05%)
14.2
$500,001 – $750,000
131
6.08 (4.64%)
21.5
$750,001 – $1,000,000
63
2.50 (3.97%)
25.2
$1,000,001 – $2,000,000
56
1.83 (3.27%)
30.6
$2,000,001 and up
16
0.08 (0.52%)
192
Posted on August 5, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Drew Kondo | Category: Statistics | Tagged , , , ,

June 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

As predicted, the median sale price for single-family residences in South Lake Tahoe dropped dramatically in June, down to $365,000. The market is certainly suffering. However, I’m becoming skeptical of the statistical barometers we continue to rely upon. Perhaps the steep decline in median sale price doesn’t quite reflect what’s happened to home values here in South Lake Tahoe. Perhaps the decline in median sale price is due in large part to increased activity in the lower price bands. Given how tight the lending market has been with jumbo loans, this is a valid hypothesis. I’ll dig through some data in the next few days to see if I can find numbers to support.

The foreclosure market was active in June with 6 foreclosure escrows of the 37 homes that went into escrow for the month. There were also 3 short sale properties that went into escrow. As of today, there are 9 foreclosure single-family residences on the market.

Lot sales and condo sales were few and far between in June. Five condos sold and 4 went into escrow. Six lots sold and 5 went into escrow in June.

Activity has increased in the 1 to 2 million dollar price band. This price band has averaged 1.75 sales per month over the last year. However, 4 sold in June, and right now there are 5 homes in escrow that were listed between 1 and 2 million dollars.

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 12 Mths. Median Sale $
June 2008
465
57
30
$415,000
$365,000
May 2008
414
47
31
$425,000
$415,000
Apr 2008
372
44
21
$428,000
$379,000
Mar 2008
361
40
34
$425,000
$387,500
Feb 2008
374
52
16
$435,750
$412,500
Jan 2008
366
33
16
$449,900
$428,000
Dec 2007
382
28
34
$449,900
$502,000
Nov 2007
403
42
27
$445,000
$460,000
Oct 2007
353
15
39
$450,000
$425,000
Sept 2007
442
30
30
$450,000
$398,250
Aug 2007
538
45
38
$464,000
$421,500
July 2007
557
40
25
$463,000
$435,000
June 2007
552
33
35
$465,000
$440,000
May 2007
522
47
32
$465,300
$460,000
Apr 2007
423
32
28
$465,150
$392,500
Mar 2007
359
37
30
$475,000
$507,000
Feb 2007
327
25
25
$474,250
$492,500
Jan 2007
331
37
21
$474,500
$395,750
Dec 2006
339
29
40
$476,000
$497,500
Nov 2006
362
50
44
$474,500
$483,500
Oct 2006
411
55
53
$465,000
$450,000
Sept 2006
463
63
31
$474,500
$442,000
Aug 2006
548
46
36
$475,000
$427,500
July 2006
571
49
37
$485,000
$475,000
June 2006
532
51
37
$485,000
$480,000
May 2006
424
50
35
$485,000
$465,000
Apr 2006
302
50
32
$489,000
$504,000
Mar 2006
264
39
38
$489,000
$485,140
Feb 2006
262
51
21
$485,000
$489,000
Jan 2006
256
32
20
$482,000
$508,750
Dec 2005
198
n/a
31
$475,000
$450,000
Nov 2005
282
42
53
$475,000
$455,000
Oct 2005
300
69
55
$465,000
$485,000
Sept 2005
313
93
63
$455,000
$495,000
Aug 2005
270
96
79
$446,000
$510,000
July 2005
209
110
74
$430,000
$484,500
June 2005
188
113
65
$425,000
$456,000
May 2005
172
96
57
$410,000
$495,000
Apr 2005
116
91
72
$399,000
$488,500
Mar 2005
88
83
50
$390,000
$440,000
Feb 2005
72
86
34
$390,000
$449,500
Jan 2005
85
63
47
$383,250
$405,000
Posted on July 9, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Drew Kondo | Category: Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , ,

May 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

After some of the statistical revelation I experienced over the last week, it’s become much easier to make conclusions on this market that can be validated with empirical evidence.

The median sale price for single family residences increased 9.5%, from $379,000 in April to $415,000 in May. Unfortunately, this is not evidence of a market turnaround. Most of the buyers who acquired property in May were simply higher priced buyers. Of the homes sold so far in June, nothing has closed above $350,000.

Prices in South Lake Tahoe will continue to drop. Look to see around twenty foreclosures hit the market this summer and even more later this year. The foreclosures are being priced very low, and they continue to force sellers to lower their prices to compete. There were sixty price reductions in the MLS over the last two weeks. We’ll see hundreds more over the summer.

A piece of positive news is that buyer activity is increasing. We saw more homes go into escrow last spring than in the spring of 2007. Right now, there are sixty-four homes in escrow. We haven’t seen that many escrows at one time since October 2005! The bottom of this market may be in sight.

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 12 Mths. Median Sale $
May 2008

414

47

31

$425,000

$415,000

Apr 2008

372

44

21

$428,000

$379,000

Mar 2008

361

40

34

$425,000

$387,500

Feb 2008

374

52

16

$435,750

$412,500

Jan 2008

366

33

16

$449,900

$428,000

Dec 2007

382

28

34

$449,900

$502,000

Nov 2007

403

42

27

$445,000

$460,000

Oct 2007

353

15

39

$450,000

$425,000

Sept 2007

442

30

30

$450,000

$398,250

Aug 2007

538

45

38

$464,000

$421,500

July 2007

557

40

25

$463,000

$435,000

June 2007

552

33

35

$465,000

$440,000

May 2007

522

47

32

$465,300

$460,000

Apr 2007

423

32

28

$465,150

$392,500

Mar 2007

359

37

30

$475,000

$507,000

Feb 2007

327

25

25

$474,250

$492,500

Jan 2007

331

37

21

$474,500

$395,750

Dec 2006

339

29

40

$476,000

$497,500

Nov 2006

362

50

44

$474,500

$483,500

Oct 2006

411

55

53

$465,000

$450,000

Sept 2006

463

63

31

$474,500

$442,000

Aug 2006

548

46

36

$475,000

$427,500

July 2006

571

49

37

$485,000

$475,000

June 2006

532

51

37

$485,000

$480,000

May 2006

424

50

35

$485,000

$465,000

Apr 2006

302

50

32

$489,000

$504,000

Mar 2006

264

39

38

$489,000

$485,140

Feb 2006

262

51

21

$485,000

$489,000

Jan 2006

256

32

20

$482,000

$508,750

Dec 2005

198

n/a

31

$475,000

$450,000

Nov 2005

282

42

53

$475,000

$455,000

Oct 2005

300

69

55

$465,000

$485,000

Sept 2005

313

93

63

$455,000

$495,000

Aug 2005

270

96

79

$446,000

$510,000

July 2005

209

110

74

$430,000

$484,500

June 2005

188

113

65

$425,000

$456,000

May 2005

172

96

57

$410,000

$495,000

Apr 2005

116

91

72

$399,000

$488,500

Mar 2005

88

83

50

$390,000

$440,000

Feb 2005

72

86

34

$390,000

$449,500

Jan 2005

85

63

47

$383,250

$405,000

Price Range

Active Listings

$0 – $250,000

6

$250,001 – $300,000

21

$300,001 – $400,000

81

$400,001 – $500,000

67

$500,001 – $600,000

60

$600,001 – $700,000

38

$700,001 – $800,000

34

$800,001 – $900,000

22

$900,001 – $1,000,000

21

$1,000,001 and up

64

Posted on June 13, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Drew Kondo | Category: Foreclosures, Statistics | Tagged , , ,

A Harder Look at Real Estate Statistics

The South Tahoe Association of Realtors (STAoR) staff went to a C.A.R. conference last week. Thus, they didn’t publish May market statistics until today. Honestly, I got impatient a few days ago and started mining our MLS for data. I had no idea what I was in for!

Two days, six phone calls, and five hours of data mining later, I have just a few nuggets for you. I’ll give you the biggest nugget first: The monthly median sold price that STAoR presents to us isn’t actually the median for that specific month. It is the median for the past twelve months. To clarify, STAoR gave us a median sales price of $428,000 for April 2008. I searched our MLS and found the following:

Median sales price for homes sold 4/1/08 to 4/30/08 – $379,000
Median sales price for homes sold 4/30/07 to 4/30/08 – $428,000

In fact, here’s a good bit of the data that I overturned:

Month & Year Listings at Month’s End Escrows at Month’s End Homes Sold Median $ Over Last 12 Mths. Median Sale $
May 2008

414

47

31

$425,000

$415,000

Apr 2008

372

44

21

$428,000

$379,000

Mar 2008

361

40

34

$425,000

$387,500

Feb 2008

374

52

16

$435,750

$412,500

Jan 2008

366

33

16

$449,900

$428,000

Dec 2007

382

28

34

$449,900

$502,000

Nov 2007

403

42

27

$445,000

$460,000

Oct 2007

353

15

39

$450,000

$425,000

Sept 2007

442

30

30

$450,000

$398,250

Aug 2007

538

45

38

$464,000

$421,500

July 2007

557

40

25

$463,000

$435,000

June 2007

552

33

35

$465,000

$440,000

May 2007

522

47

32

$465,300

$460,000

Apr 2007

423

32

28

$465,150

$392,500

Mar 2007

359

37

30

$475,000

$507,000

Feb 2007

327

25

25

$474,250

$492,500

Jan 2007

331

37

21

$474,500

$395,750

Dec 2006

339

29

40

$476,000

$497,500

Nov 2006

362

50

44

$474,500

$483,500

Oct 2006

411

55

53

$465,000

$450,000

Sept 2006

463

63

31

$474,500

$442,000

Aug 2006

548

46

36

$475,000

$427,500

July 2006

571

49

37

$485,000

$475,000

June 2006

532

51

37

$485,000

$480,000

May 2006

424

50

35

$485,000

$465,000

Apr 2006

302

50

32

$489,000

$504,000

Mar 2006

264

39

38

$489,000

$485,140

Feb 2006

262

51

21

$485,000

$489,000

Jan 2006

256

32

20

$482,000

$508,750

Dec 2005

198

n/a

31

$475,000

$450,000

Nov 2005

282

42

53

$475,000

$455,000

Oct 2005

300

69

55

$465,000

$485,000

Sept 2005

313

93

63

$455,000

$495,000

Aug 2005

270

96

79

$446,000

$510,000

July 2005

209

110

74

$430,000

$484,500

June 2005

188

113

65

$425,000

$456,000

May 2005

172

96

57

$410,000

$495,000

Apr 2005

116

91

72

$399,000

$488,500

Mar 2005

88

83

50

$390,000

$440,000

Feb 2005

72

86

34

$390,000

$449,500

Jan 2005

85

63

47

$383,250

$405,000

Before I continue, I’ll relay a couple things told to me by STAoR staff over the last two days. First, they are not the only ones who present data in this manner. They say that many boards in small markets do the same thing. There is good reason for this. It smoothes data and eliminates variance. With few homes being sold monthly in small markets like South Lake Tahoe, there can be spikes or depressions in the data that don’t accurately reflect the market. For instance, let’s say sixteen homes will be sold in June 2008 (extremely unlikely, but it happened in January and February). If nine of these homes are closed at over one million dollars, the median will be over one million, which is more than double the actual median value of South Lake Tahoe homes. STAoR eliminates variance by incorporating a larger data set.

They aren’t truly presenting a median sales price, however. Their statistic is more like the 50-day moving average that stock market analysts use. In fact, I call their stat a 12-month moving median. There are two problems with it: 1) It does not reflect what actually happened in a month; and 2) its data centers on a date half a year in the past. Check out the table. The 12-month moving median peaks in March and April of 2006. However, the market really peaked seven months earlier in August 2005. If someone was basing a decision to sell a few years ago on this set of data, they would have been seven months late and more than a few dollars short! In the same breath, when the market bottoms out, the 12-month moving median won’t reflect this until half a year later. It is in cases like this that the actual median is much more helpful in decision making.

I’ll be posting more reflections on my data mining in the next few days.

Posted on June 11, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Drew Kondo | Category: Statistics | Tagged , , ,

April 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

Sorry this is coming late folks!  Achilles tendon surgery, amongst other even bigger things, has kept me tied up in the last couple of weeks.

Here are the latest statistics from the South Tahoe Association of Realtors.  This data is from April 30, 2008.  The median home price in South Lake Tahoe rose 0.7% from last month ($425,000 to $428,000).  The market, however, is still in a decline.  Median home price has dropped over the past year by 8% ($465,150 to $428,000).  The best explanation for the increase in median price from last month has been the increase in foreclosure listings in the higher price bands.  I blogged on this very topic on March 31st in the posting Foreclosures in South Lake Tahoe.  I expect a decline in median home price next month due to this foreclosure-driven, downcycling market.

Median Home Price

Number of Active Listings

Number of Escrows

$428,000

372

44

Number of Listings by Price Range

Price Range

Active Listings

$0 – $250,000

5

$250,001 – $300,000

19

$300,001 – $400,000

66

$400,001 – $500,000

65

$500,001 – $600,000

56

$600,001 – $700,000

37

$700,001 – $800,000

27

$800,001 – $900,000

27

$900,001 – $1,000,000

16

$1,000,001 and up

54

Posted on May 19, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Drew Kondo | Category: Statistics | Tagged , , , ,

March 2008 Statistics for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate

Here are some of the latest statistics from the South Tahoe Association of Realtors.  This data is from March 31, 2008.

South Lake Tahoe’s median home price has fallen 5.5% in the last two months.  Ouch!

Median Home Price

Number of Active Listings

Number of Escrows

$425,000

361

40

Number of Listings by Price Range

Price Range

Active Listings

$0 – $250,000

2

$250,001 – $300,000

12

$300,001 – $400,000

64

$400,001 – $500,000

74

$500,001 – $600,000

52

$600,001 – $700,000

32

$700,001 – $800,000

27

$800,001 – $900,000

31

$900,001 – $1,000,000

10

$1,000,001 and up

57

Posted on April 11, 2008 at 12:06 am
Drew Kondo | Category: Statistics | Tagged , , ,